Sunday, July 15, 2018

It's coming - nothing can be done

It IS. 
As the world continues to burn energy like there is no tomorrow, 
global oil and gas discoveries fell to another low in 2017.  And to 
make matters worse, world oil investment has dropped 45% from its peak 
in 2014.  If the world oil industry doesn’t increase its capital 
expenditures significantly, we are going to hit the Energy Cliff much 
sooner than later. 
Read more:


racinecountycorruption said...

The end of mankind's use of oil is inevitable, such as the end of mankind.
Until then, oil in one shape or form will be consumed.

Anonymous said...

Yeah - what u say.....

The long story:

Petroleum production is a process. The process includes the extraction, processing (refining), and distribution of crude oil and its products. Each step of the process requires an input of energy to be completed. As time progresses the needed energy input increases. This occurs because of entropy production (a Second Law mandate) in the process. When the needed energy input exceeds the exergy of the petroleum, the petroleum can no longer act as an energy source. It has lost it primary value as a commodity. This is denoted as "the dead state"; the point when no additional work can be extracted from the system (a unit of petroleum).

Entropy production results in an increase in the irreversibilities of a system. Irreversibilities are a measure of the energy cost of the processes of a system. The ETP model is a summation of the irreversibilities present in the petroleum production system over a period of time. Subtracting the irreversibilities in the system at a point in time from its exergy gives the amount of energy available to be used by the non-energy goods producing sector of the economy. The model does this on a specific (per unit) bases. The unit employed is the US gallon.

To be of value a model must be predictive. To have confidence in its ability to predict future events with an acceptable level of certainty, it must also be capable of reproducing past events with a reasonable level of accuracy. This implies, of course, that the past events being reproduced are known with reasonable accuracy. There are few past events which have occurred in the history of petroleum production that can be stated with certainty. The one catagory for which we are almost 100% certain is its price history. The price of crude oil varies daily, even by the hour, but when viewed from an energy perspective its longer term value closely follows a well defined mathematical function. That mathematical function is derived from the ETP model. The price of petroleum is driven by its cost of production, and its cost of production is controlled by the energy required to produce it. This simple relationship gives a means to map the past, and future of petroleum prices. Mapped to past pricing the relationship gives an almost perfect fit. Because the model is based on First and Second Law premises future projections can be expected to perform as well as those that were applied to the past.


Anonymous said...

The ETP model is derived from a Second Law statement, which means that it is, also, a Second Law statement. Because the model is based on First and Second Law premises, and because we have reason to have confidence in petroleum's price history, petroleum’s cumulative production history can also be determined with a level of confidence similar to that which exists for its price. The model is reliant on one variable, petroleum's cumulative production history, and this can be verified from its price history. The strength of the ETP model depends on two factors, its bases in First and Second premises, and the confidence that can be attributed to petroluem's price history.

Optimistic estimates place the world's total petroleum reserve at 4,300 billion barrels. Of that quantity the ETP model predicts that it will be possible to extract 1,760.5 billion barrels. This constitutes 40.9% of the total reserve. This is in agreement with assessments that have been made by several noted petro-gelogists. The principal difference between the use of an energy approach, and conventional methods is that the energy approach provides for the development of a reliable predictor for petroleum's future pricing. The model shows that petroleum's ability to supply the energy needed to sustain its own production process is declining. This is experienced by the consumer as increasing price. The model demonstrates why the two events are synchronized. The ETP model adds an important, and needed element toward a deeper understanding of the depletion status of our most essential extractive commodity.