Thursday, June 11, 2020

Coronavirus deaths are expected to go down before a sharp rise in September, model shows

(CNN)The US surpassed 2 million confirmed coronavirus cases as experts predicted Thursday that tens of thousands more people will get infected and die in the months ahead.
Nearly 113,000 people have died from Covid-19 nationwide, according to Johns Hopkins University.
An influential model cited by the White House issued the dire prediction, saying the US death toll could reach 169,890 by October 1, with a possible range of about 133,000 to 290,000 deaths.
Daily deaths are expected to decrease through June and July, then remain relatively stable through August before rising sharply in September, the model forecasts.
    "If the US is unable to check the growth in September, we could be facing worsening trends in October, November and the following months if the pandemic, as we expect, follows pneumonia seasonality," said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.
    Many states have loosened restrictions that began in March to stop the spread of the virus. But with no vaccine, more people congregating in public places and recent protests for racial justice in major cities, one health expert predicted that the nation's coronavirus death toll will nearly double by September.
    "I think right now, most Americans are not ready to lock back down, and I completely understand that. ... I understand people are willing to live alongside this virus. It means that between 800 and 1,000 Americans are going to die every single day," Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told CNN.
    "We're going to get another 100,000 deaths by September. So, that's a catastrophic cost," Jha said. "We really do have to try to figure out how to bring the caseloads down from these scary levels."

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