Biden, Trump neck-and-neck; Baldwin has slight lead over Hovde, according to latest Wisconsin poll

From The Journal Times.com:

• MITCHELL SCHMIDT

All signs point to another nail-biter general election in Wisconsin this fall, with the battleground state’s presidential and U.S. Senate races appearing neck and neck, a Marquette Law School Poll released Wednesday shows.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain dead even, with both candidates receiving support from 50% of registered voters — largely mirroring results from Marquette’s previous polling.

Biden leads Trump 51% to 49% among likely voters, well within the poll’s 4.6% margin of error. All told, the latest survey underscores that voters’ opinions are largely unchanged from April, when Marquette’s poll found 51% of respondents — including both registered and likely voters — backed the Republican Trump, while 49% supported the Democrat Biden.

And in a race that could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate next year, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Madison, has maintained her narrow lead in the race, receiving support from 52% of both registered and likely voters, compared with 47% for Republican businessman Eric Hovde, also of Madison.

The latest poll reflects little change from April, when Baldwin held a narrow lead over Hovde among registered voters, with 52% compared with Hovde’s 47%. That poll found the race to be evenly split among likely voters, with both candidates receiving 50%.

Wednesday’s poll comes one day before Biden and Trump are set to square off in their first debate of the election cycle in Atlanta.

Hovde and Baldwin, meanwhile, have agreed to debate in Madison on Oct. 18.

Wednesday’s poll, conducted by phone and online June 12-20, surveyed 871 registered voters.

Trump’s conviction

Wednesday’s poll is the first after a Manhattan jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts for falsifying business records to cover up payments to a porn star.

Seventy-six percent of respondents said they read or heard a lot about Trump’s trial, while 21% said they had read or heard a little. Another 3% said they were not at all familiar with the former president’s conviction.

Fifty-five percent of respondents said they believe Trump is guilty, while 36% said the jury made a mistake and the former president is not guilty.

“Trump supporters, not surprisingly, are very unwilling to say that he’s guilty — and have various arguments for why he’s not,” poll director Charles Franklin said.

In addition, 42% of respondents said Trump should not have been prosecuted at all, while 50% said prosecution was the right judgment call. Another 8% said they didn’t know.

Asked about whether Biden’s son Hunter Biden should have been prosecuted for felony gun charges, 76% of respondents said prosecution was the correct decision, while 11% said he should not have been brought to trial. Thirteen percent of respondents said they didn’t know.

Voter enthusiasm

As previous surveys have shown, Wednesday’s poll continues to underscore an overall lack of enthusiasm among Wisconsin voters heading toward November, particularly Democratic voters.

Forty-six percent of respondents said they are very enthusiastic to vote in November, compared with 21% who say they are somewhat enthusiastic. Those not very enthusiastic to vote made up 19% of respondents, while 14% said they are not at all enthusiastic.

Among those who say they are very enthusiastic to vote, 61% support Trump, compared with 39% for Biden. Respondents who are somewhat, not very and not at all enthusiastic to vote this November lean in Biden’s favor.

“This race is a big question about turnout and what matters here, because Biden has real strength among the voters who are not that engaged,” Franklin said. “Trump has real strength among the people who are really excited to participate, so how does this balance out?”

Of voters who say they are very enthusiastic to vote, 98% say they are absolutely certain to cast a ballot this fall. Among somewhat enthusiastic respondents, 87% say they are certain to vote, while that certainty drops to 73% for those not too enthusiastic and 67% for those not at all enthusiastic to vote.

“Here’s a path to Joe Biden to lose this election pretty badly, in that he’s failed to inspire his supporters, they’re unenthusiastic about him and his campaign, and they’re much less likely to vote than those who are very enthusiastic — who overwhelmingly are for Trump,” Franklin said.

The lack of enthusiasm among many voters has been largely consistent in previous polls dating back to October 2023. In Marquette’s June 2020 poll, 59% of respondents said they were very enthusiastic to vote, while just 7% said they were not at all enthusiastic.

Biden defeated Trump in Wisconsin by 20,682 votes in 2020, while Trump won the state in 2016 by securing 22,748 more votes than Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

Franklin said Democrats do hold an advantage in that their voters traditionally turn out better than Republicans, but he added “enthusiasm plays a role in this as well.”

“That’s where Democrats are really suffering right now,” Franklin continued. “So, I don’t know how this is going to turn out.”

Third-party candidates

Another lingering question surrounding the upcoming presidential election is how many voters third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, Cornel West and Chase Oliver could pull from either major political party if they remain in the race this fall.

In a six-way matchup, Trump leads the field with 43% of support among registered voters, compared with 40% for Biden.

Kennedy, who was backed by 17% of respondents in Marquette’s January poll, received support from just 8% of those who responded to Wednesday’s poll. Stein, West and Oliver saw single-digit support among respondents in the June survey.

From: https://journaltimes.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/elections/wisconsin-marquette-law-school-poll-president-senate-tammy-baldwin-eric-hovde-donald-trump-joe-biden-election-2024/article_1a18f398-2fdc-5eb1-a05a-ae9b6d985b74.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

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US surgeon general declares gun violence a public health emergency

Story by AMANDA SEITZ, Associated Press

FILE - Surgeon General Vivek Murthy speaks during an Archewell Foundation panel discussion in New York City, Oct. 10, 2023. On Tuesday, June 25, 2024, Murthy, the nation's top doctor, declared gun violence a public health crisis, driven by a growing number of injuries and deaths involving firearms in the country. The advisory came as the U.S. grappled with another weekend marked by mass shootings that left dozens of people dead or wounded. (AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey, File)© Provided by The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. surgeon general on Tuesday declared gun violence a public health crisis, driven by the fast-growing number of injuries and deaths involving firearms in the country.

The advisory issued by Dr. Vivek Murthy, the nation's top doctor, came as the U.S. grappled with another summer weekend marked by mass shootings that left dozens of people dead or wounded.

“People want to be able to walk through their neighborhoods and be safe," Murthy told The Associated Press in a phone interview. “America should be a place where all of us can go to school, go to work, go to the supermarket, go to our house of worship, without having to worry that that's going to put our life at risk.”

To drive down gun deaths, Murthy calls on the U.S. to ban automatic rifles, introduce universal background checks for purchasing guns, regulate the industry, pass laws that would restrict their use in public spaces and penalize people who fail to safely store their weapons.

None of those suggestions can be implemented nationwide without legislation passed by Congress, which typically recoils at gun control measures. Some state legislatures, however, have enacted or may consider some of the surgeon general's proposals.

Surgeon General Murthy said there is “broad agreement” that gun violence is a problem, citing a poll last year that found most Americans worry at least sometimes that a loved one might be injured by a firearm. More than 48,000 Americans died from gun injuries in 2022.

Doctors quickly praised Murthy's advisory. The American Academy of Family Physicians, for example, has considered gun violence a public health epidemic for over a decade.

“Family physicians have long understood, and have seen first hand, the devastating impact firearm violence has on our patients and the communities we serve,” the group's president, Steven Furr, said in a statement.

Murthy's advisory, however, promises to be controversial with the gun lobby and will certainly incense Republican lawmakers, most of whom opposed his confirmation — twice — to the job over his statements on gun violence.

The National Rifle Association promptly rebuked Murthy's advisory.

“This is an extension of the Biden Administration's war on law-abiding gun owners,” Randy Kozuch, the organization's president, said in a statement on X.

It was the NRA, and Republicans who enjoy the powerful gun lobby's support, that almost derailed Murthy's confirmation as surgeon general a decade ago. Murthy became quieter on the issue of gun violence after his past statements almost cost him the job. He ended up promising the Senate that he did “not intend to use my office as surgeon general as a bully pulpit on gun control.”

Then-President Donald Trump dismissed Murthy in 2017, but President Joe Biden nominated him again to the position in 2021.

Murthy has published warnings about troubling health trends in American life, including loneliness and social media use. In an opinion piece in The New York Times this month, he said social media has contributed to a mental health crisis among the country's young people and asked Congress to require warning labels on social media platforms similar to those on cigarette boxes.

But he also has faced mounting pressure from some doctors and Democratic advocacy groups to speak out more. A group of four former surgeon generals asked the Biden administration to produce a report on the problem in 2022.

“It is now time for us to take this issue out of the realm of politics and put it in the realm of public health, the way we did with smoking more than a half century ago,” Murthy told the AP.

It was a 1964 report from the surgeon general that raised awareness about the dangers of smoking is largely credited with reducing tobacco use and precipitating regulations on the industry.

Murthy now hopes his advisory on guns will shift the conversation, too, on this issue. He has been encouraged by some developments in Congress, including the passage of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act in 2022 that enhanced background checks for firearms.

A White House report obtained by The Associated Press says that more thorough background checks have stopped roughly 800 sales of firearms to people under age 21. Additionally, more than 500 people, including some linked to transnational cartels and organized crime rings, have been charged with gun trafficking and other crimes under the landmark gun safety legislation.

Children and younger Americans, in particular, are suffering from gun violence, Murthy notes in his advisory called “Firearm Violence: A Public Health Crisis in America.” Suicide by gun rates have increased by nearly 70% for those between the ages of 10 to 14. Children in the U.S. are far more likely to die from gun wounds than children in other countries, the research he gathered shows.

For pediatricians, talking with families about locking up their guns away from their children has become a routine part of well visits, said Benjamin Hoffman, the president of the American Academy of Pediatrics. When children can't get access to a gun, it prevents a large chunk of gun deaths and injuries — accidental shootings and suicides.

“Having access to a firearm for a child who is experiencing a behavioral health crisis is an absolute recipe for the most tragic things you can imagine,” Hoffman said.

Even when children are not direct victims of a gun shooting, they may suffer from mental health blowback of gun violence, the report says. About half of teens in the U.S. worry about a school shooting. And in areas that have been exposed to a fatal shooting at a school, youth antidepressant use jumps by more than 20%.

In addition to new regulations, Murthy calls for an increase in gun violence research and for the health system to promote and educate patients about gun safety and proper storage during checkups.

From: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/us-surgeon-general-declares-gun-violence-a-public-health-emergency/ar-BB1oQnoa?bncnt=BroadcastNews_TopStories&ocid=winp1taskbar&FORM=BNC001&cvid=42d722e29e3643afb6c85d5d1d479527&ei=11

Effort to recall Robin Vos has enough signatures, but questions remain about which district lines appl

From The Journal Times.com:

• MITCHELL SCHMIDT

Organizers of the second recall effort against Assembly Speaker Robin Vos have turned in enough valid signatures to force a recall, according to Wisconsin Elections Commission staff, but staff members stopped short of recommending that the agency order an election.

According to a more than 200-page staff report ahead of the commission's Thursday meeting, organizers submitted 6,866 valid signatures from Vos' old 63rd Assembly District, narrowly surpassing the 6,850 needed to trigger a recall election.

However, staff also note that questions still linger over which legislative maps should apply to any recall effort, which was launched by Republicans frustrated that Vos, Wisconsin's longest-serving Assembly speaker, refused former president Donald Trump's request to overturn Wisconsin's 2020 presidential election, something the speaker is not empowered to do under state law and the Constitution.

At issue is the Wisconsin Supreme Court's December 2023 ruling that the state's previous legislative maps are unconstitutional, a decision that effectively bars their use even though new maps signed into law earlier this year don't go into effect until November. New maps moved Vos into the state's new 33rd Assembly District.

The commission asked the state Supreme Court for clarification on what legislative boundaries should apply to any recall or special elections held before new maps go into effect, but the state's highest court denied to weigh in on the matter.

The six-member bipartisan commission has until Friday to determine whether Vos can be recalled in his 63rd Assembly District. The commission is scheduled to meet on Thursday.

"If the Commission finds petition sufficient, the Commission would be faced with determining within which district a recall election could be held," staff write in the report.

Staff note that, if a recall is ordered, the vote could be held on Tuesday, August 6, just one week before the August 13 primary.

Vos, R-Rochester, has challenged the recall effort, saying it fails because signatures were collected in the wrong Assembly District. Organizers have contested the recall petitions are valid.

The group in March submitted more than 9,000 signatures seeking to recall Vos, but the elections commission denied the request after determining only 5,905 signatures were valid.

Racine County District Attorney Patricia Hanson earlier this year said her office had fielded numerous calls about possible identity theft from electors who said their names had fraudulently been added to the first recall petition effort.

Vos did not immediately respond to a request for comment Tuesd

From: https://journaltimes.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/wisconsin-election-recall-racine-assembly-robin-vos-legislature-elections-commission-signature/article_385d1b77-b53c-5599-b4bf-65b59b63d5ca.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

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Former Lake Geneva mayor aims to take on Vos in new legislative district

From The Journal Times.com:

Scott Williams

RACINE — Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos faces several obstacles to winning election this fall in his new Assembly district.

Redistricting has moved the Rochester Republican from the 63rd Assembly District to the 33rd Assembly District.

While the current district covered mostly northern Racine County, the new district extends farther south and west, reaching into Walworth County.

Redistricting took place statewide after the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that the old districts violated the state Constitution, in a dispute based of longstanding allegations of Republican gerrymandering.

Voters will cast ballots Nov. 5 to elect Assembly representatives for the next two years.

The first obstacle Vos faces is a Republican primary challenge from East Troy resident Andrew Cegielski. The winner of the Aug. 13 primary will advance to the November election.

One week after qualifying to get on the ballot, Cegielski announced that he was ending his campaign. He has declined to offer an explanation for the turnabout.

Cegielski will remain on the ballot, however, so Republican voters will still decide a Vos-Cegielski primary in August.

In November, Democrat Alan Kupsik and independent Kelly Clark are aiming to win the 33rd District.

Kupsik is a Lake Geneva resident and Clark is a Sturtevant resident.

Kupsik has served as a Lake Geneva alderman and mayor, and a Walworth County Board supervisor. He also ran as a Democrat against Republican Assembly member Tyler August.

Kupsik, who has been out of politics since 2018, said he was recruited by Democrats to enter the Assembly race, and he is getting strong party support for his campaign.

"I'm a firm believer in people having a choice," he said. "It's going to be a tight race."

Clark could not be reached for comment.

Vos issued a statement about the race after learning that Cegielski was ending his campaign. The Republican lawmaker, who was first elected 20 years ago, said he would campaign vigorously in his new district.

“I will spend this summer knocking on every door, getting to know the new voters in Walworth County and sharing with them my vision for the future," he said.

Vos is facing the second of two Republican-led efforts to recall him from his current legislative seat. State election officials have until June 28 to rule on the validity of recall petitions submitted last month.

From: https://journaltimes.com/news/local/government-politics/robin-vos-alan-kupsik-election-assembly/article_e7d38252-3003-11ef-a28d-d31509fc0b91.html

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Rev. Al Sharpton, local religious leaders to rally against white Christian nationalism ahead of RNC

From JSOnline:

Quinn Clark

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Longtime civil rights activists and faith leaders are coming together to speak out against white Christian nationalism one day before the Republican National Convention.

The "We All Belong" campaign, which was launched last year by multi-faith organization MICAH, will hold a "Rally for Democracy" on July 14 from 2 to 6 p.m. at University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee's Helene Zelazo Center for the Performing Arts.

Organizers said the event will reject white Christian nationalism and promote democracy and what Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. called a "Beloved Community" that has compassion for and welcomes all

The rally's speakers include both nationally and locally renowned civil rights activists, including Rev. Al Sharpton and Milwaukee's own Rev. Greg Lewis and Rev. Joseph Ellwanger.

"We're here to say Milwaukee is standing for a campaign and a way of being as Americans where we all belong, barring none, and building that 'Beloved Community,'" said Milwaukee Muslim Women's Coalition president Janan Najeeb, also a featured speaker.

Ellwanger, a longtime civil rights leader and member of MICAH, grew up in segregated Selma, Ala., witnessing the injustices of the Jim Crow South. He served as one the few white pastors of an African American congregation in Birmingham in 1958.

Ellwanger worked with civil rights leaders like King to create change, including advocating for the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which banned discriminatory tactics meant to keep Black voters from the polls. Today, as politicians like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene promote white Christian nationalism, he said his work is far from over.

Christian nationalism is a right-wing movement that argues Christian values should influence government and that church and state should not be separate.

Ellwanger said white Christian nationalism's ideology, which excludes people of color and the LGBTQ+ community, is almost reinstating Jim Crow's policies, which is "neither Christian, nor is it patriotic."

"Legal Jim Crow died a slow, difficult death only after Martin Luther King and some Christian leadership put their lives on the line and said, 'Enough is enough,'" said Ellwanger. "And we still have the results."

Ellwanger said both the We All Belong campaign and the campaign's event planned for July 14 are nonpartisan.

"We're not for Democrats, and con or against Republicans," Ellwanger said. "We're against white, Christian nationalism, wherever it is. Unfortunately, it is in every sector of society."

Tickets for the "Rally for Democracy" are available for $5 on MICAHmke.org. A livestream of the event will also be available.

Quinn Clark is a Public Investigator reporter. She can be emailed at QClark@gannett.com. Follow her on Twitter at @Quinn_A_Clark.

From: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/2024/06/21/rev-al-sharpton-civil-rights-leaders-to-rally-in-milwaukee-ahead-of-rnc/74174309007/

What happens at a political convention like the RNC

From JSOnline:

See this and read more at: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/21/what-to-know-about-the-rnc-hard-perimeter-demonstration-areas/73997663007/

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Pants on Fire: At Racine rally, Trump repeats false claim he ‘saved’ Kenosha in 2020 and Evers didn’t act

From JSOnline:

Hope Karnopp

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

In the middle of talking about crime and immigration in his June 18, 2024, rally in Racine, Wisconsin, former President Donald Trump turned his attention to Kenosha.

Kenosha — about 11 miles south of where Trump held his rally — was rocked by civil unrest in 2020 after a police officer shot Jacob Blake, a Black man, seven times. The officer was not criminally charged.

While there was looting, firebombing and violence during some nights of the protests, others were peaceful. 

“I saved Kenosha, do you know that?” Trump told the crowd. “I saved it. Kenosha was about ready to go down the tubes.”

“The governor wouldn’t move, he just wouldn’t move, and I moved,” he said. “You know, I’m not supposed to, it’s supposed to be the governor is supposed to do it. The mayor and the governor.” 

Trump has made similar claims before: that Kenosha would have been destroyed without him, and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers was too late to send help. In 2020, PolitiFact Wisconsin rated those claims “Pants on Fire.” 

There were three assumptions, which were also at play in Trump’s latest claims, that we investigated: 

Kenosha was on a trajectory for destruction.
No other changes happened that would have improved the situation in Kenosha.
Trump alone is responsible for activating the National Guard.

In our 2020 fact check, we found each to be wrong. Let’s go through those again.

Protests occurred in a limited area compared to entire city 

There’s a big difference between protests damaging a limited area and destroying or altering a large portion of a city of 100,000 people, we noted in that fact check. 

The protests, even at the peak of the unrest Aug. 25, 2020, were largely concentrated in the one-acre Civic Park and a nearby area a few blocks wide, though people spilled into nearby neighborhoods after the largest groups were dispersed.

That drastically exaggerates the scope of the situation in Kenosha, a city of 28.4 square miles, even at its worst. That goes against Trump’s new statement of the city being “about ready to go down the tubes.” 

Other factors beside National Guard presence reduced violence, including calls for peace

In 2020, Trump’s attempt to claim credit assumed the National Guard presence was the only factor in the lack of violence after Kyle Rittenhouse shot three people and killed two.

Rittenhouse was later found not guilty on five counts, including intentional, reckless and attempted homicide.

There were other reasons why violence slowed down after that, including a change in who was in the crowd.

A group described by Kenosha County Sheriff David Beth as "a militia" and "vigilante group" had been patrolling the streets of Kenosha and even standing watch on roofs with long guns the first couple nights after the Blake shooting. 

In the hours before the shootings, the "Kenosha Guard"  issued a call on Facebook for "patriots willing to take up arms and defend out (sic) City tonight from the evil thugs." That page was removed by Facebook after the Rittenhouse shooting. 

And people wearing military gear and openly carrying weapons decreased drastically after the night of chaos that included the shooting, according to Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporters who were on the ground in Kenosha. 

Still, citizens with handguns were observed as late as the weekend.

During the height of the protests, the vigilante groups and Black Lives Matter protesters were regularly clashing with each other, by hurling insults or worse. 

Removing half of that equation — for whatever reason that occurred — changed the situation dramatically.

In addition to a drop in armed people, there were also calls for peace, including from Blake’s family, at marches and rallies, and — to varying degrees — from Evers and local officials. 

Evers also declared a state of emergency, and local officials took steps to better control the area, such as closing off freeway access. That was in addition to increasing the number of troops, which also happened. 

Trump did not send the National Guard, state efforts began before Trump talked to Wisconsin officials  

That brings us to the final part of the claim, and something Trump noted again at his rally in Racine: that he was responsible for sending in the National Guard, and Evers didn’t act. 

The White House described itself as authorizing 2,000 National Guard troops to go to Kenosha. But Maj. Gen. Paul Knapp, who commanded the Wisconsin National Guard at the time, said that’s not really how that system operates. 

He described it this way when asked what role the White House played in the Kenosha response.

"What I want to re-emphasize is the process is actually a governor-to-governor compact," Knapp said. 

"Through the (Emergency Management Assistance Compact) process we had already started talking to other states (when the White House got involved), it’s one of the things we do right away during something like this."

Each state has its own National Guard — as provided for in the Constitution — and the guard has a role at both the state and federal level, according to its website. 

Governors can call the National Guard into action during local or statewide emergencies. On Aug. 24, 2020, Evers activated the Guard, less than 24 hours after Blake was shot. The Trump administration talked to Evers on Aug. 25, 2020. 

The president can also activate the guard for federal missions. Examples of federal missions given on the website included deployments to Kosovo or the anti-terrorism efforts in the Middle East.

After the Rittenhouse shooting, Evers increased National Guard troop numbers from 250 to 500. Evers also accepted federal troops from the Trump administration, after initially turning down federal help. We noted that in a related fact-check in 2021.

Evers’ administration said the White House was offering help from the Department of Homeland Security, not the National Guard. Evers had declined because more Guard members had already been sent.

Our ruling

At a rally in Racine, Trump made similar claims to ones he said almost four years ago: that he “saved Kenosha” and the “governor wouldn’t move” on sending the National Guard. 

Other factors besides the National Guard’s presence calmed the situation in Kenosha, including calls for peace and a reduction in the number of armed people. 

Trump also said Kenosha was “about ready go down the tubes,” though protests were largely contained to one acre of the larger city — exaggerating the scope of the situation. 

Finally, Trump was not responsible for sending in the National Guard. State-level efforts began before his administration got involved. His administration did send in federal troops, but Evers had activated the National Guard before that.

Based on those findings in our previous fact checks, we again rate Trump’s claims Pants on Fire.

Sources

WisEye, Campaign 2024: Trump for President Rally in Racine, June 18, 2024. 

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, A Black man shot in the back, a viral video and civil unrest: Kenosha and the rest of the country are on edge after latest police shooting, Jan. 5, 2021.

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Prosecutor: No charges against Kenosha police officer Rusten Sheskey in Jacob Blake shooting, Jan. 5, 2021.

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Kenosha update recap: Coverage from Aug. 26, Aug. 29, 2020.

PolitiFact Wisconsin, No, Trump doesn't deserve credit for Kenosha de-escalation, Sept.1, 2020. 

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, White House says Gov. Tony Evers turned down federal help to quell Kenosha disturbances, Aug. 26, 2024. 

PolitiFact Wisconsin, No, Wis. Gov. Evers did not wait to send help to Kenosha during unrest, Sept. 15, 2021.

From: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/politifactwisconsin/2024/06/20/trump-again-claims-he-saved-kenosha-but-evers-sent-troops-first/74161055007/